The State of the World's Children 2024
The future of childhood in a changing world
What does the future hold for the world’s children?
In many ways, the future is now. Today’s actions and decisions will determine the future children inherit.
Unfortunately, today's children live in a world fraught with crises, poverty and discrimination. Where far too many are deprived of opportunities to meet their full potential.
We can and must do better.
The future of childhood hangs in the balance.
This year’s State of the World’s Children Report examines the forces and trends shaping our world today and reflects on how they might shape the future.
The report explores three megatrends that will profoundly impact children’s lives between now and the 2050s: demographic shifts, the climate and environmental crises and frontier technologies.
It also presents three future scenarios – possible outcomes, not predictions – for how children could experience the world of 2050.
As we consider what we can do today, our responsibility is clear: now is the time to shape a better future for every child.
“Our future hinges on your decisions today...
Let's build a world where prosperity is shared equitably, and where every individual can thrive.”
U-Reporter, 20
U-Report is UNICEF's digital community for young people.
Three megatrends
From the long list of forces and trends shaping the world, this report focuses on three that will inevitably shape the world for children over the next quarter century:
- demographic transitions,
- climate and environmental crises and
- frontier technologies.
Each will impact children’s daily experiences – how they live, learn, interact and develop.
A 10-year-old boy holds up his younger brother near a contaminated lake in the Corail slum of Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Demographic transition
The future of childhood is directly linked to historic demographic shifts underway in our world today.
We are living longer, having fewer children and moving more frequently.
For children, movement and migration can offer benefits through increased safety from conflict and climate crises, as well as improved educational opportunities. But it also carries dangers, including increased risk of exploitation and separation from caregivers.
In 2023, 20.8 million children were newly displaced within their countries, mostly because of conflict and disasters.
Amid increasing environmental disruptions, this number is likely to grow.
Demographic patterns, and the way they differ across regions, will fundamentally shape children in the future, holding both opportunities and threats for children’s well-being.
A future of shifting populations
In the 2050s, the number of children in the world is predicted to be roughly the same as today: about 2.3 billion.
But this stable projection conceals other regional shifts, impacts of an aging population and movement within countries.
Regional shifts
While South Asia will remain one of the regions with the largest child populations, it will be joined by Eastern and Southern Africa, as well as West and Central Africa. These regions already struggle to meet children’s basic needs, while also facing significant climate risks and lacking adequate digital infrastructure.
More than a third of the world’s children will live in four countries: China, India, Nigeria and Pakistan.
Share of children
Across regions, the share of children in the population is expected to decrease as adult populations grow.
In some societies, children will account for fewer than one in ten of the population, raising questions about their visibility and the respect for their views and rights.
In others, large populations of children will offer the potential for a demographic dividend – a potential boost to economic growth as working-age populations grow.
Urbanization
Population movements within countries, including urbanization and internal displacement, will also continue to shape childhood.
Between the 2000s and the 2050s, the percentage of children living in cities will rise by a third to 1.3 billion in the 2050s, when three in five children are expected to live in urban settings.
Without targeted interventions, it is likely that many more children will reside in high-density urban communities by 2050, where access to water, health care and education is suboptimal and where exposure to violence and environmental hazards will put their well-being at risk.
The right to a safe place to live
In the next quarter century, governments must understand, anticipate and respond to demographic shifts with policies that fulfil their obligations to protect the rights of children to a standard of living that allows them to make the most of their future.
The Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC) includes core principles that can guide decisionmakers to invest in quality education, skill development and more teachers; greater access to healthcare services; and child-friendly cities. These investments can help to ensure that children live in communities designed and equipped to meet their needs.
A six-year-old girl stands in the ruins of her home, destroyed by a landslide when Super Typhoon Yagi’s heavy rains hit Viet Nam.
The climate and environmental crises
From before they take their first breath, children’s development is impacted by their environment.
Their developing brains, lungs and immune systems are uniquely susceptible to pollution, disease and extreme weather. As they grow, every realm of children's lives — from education to nutrition, from safety to mental health — is shaped by the climate and environment.
Approximately 1 billion children currently live in countries that already face high risk of climate and environmental hazards.
With humanity breaching critical ecological limits, children are already coping with a more unpredictable, hazardous environment than children of any previous generation.
In 2050, climate impacts will only grow.
Climate projections to the year 2050 paint a sobering picture, with possible global temperature increases of 1.5°C to 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
The impacts will most acutely be felt by the youngest and most vulnerable members of our world.
Exposure to extreme heatwaves
Compared with the start of this century, about eight times more children could be exposed to extreme heatwaves in the 2050s. Exposure to raised temperatures poses unique risk to children’s health and wellbeing, including chronic respiratory problems, like asthma, and cardiovascular diseases.
Exposure to other extreme climate and environmental impacts
More children are also projected to be exposed to extreme droughts, cyclones and floods, where regular water and food shortages become the new normal.
In the 2050s, more than three times as many children are expected to be exposed to extreme river floods, and nearly twice as many exposed to extreme wildfires, compared to the 2000s.
The urgency of addressing climate change and environmental degradation has never been greater. The consequences for children’s health and well-being and for the stability and resilience of their communities are profound.
The climate crisis is a child rights crisis
Failing to protect children from climate and ecological crises is a violation of their rights. Safeguarding these rights today and into the future means both recognizing which hazards children face and understanding their impact.
The CRC’s principle of the right to life, survival and health can guide decisionmakers to invest in climate-resilient infrastructure for schools and homes; green technology; climate education; and policy reform to phase out fossil fuels. Children’s unique vulnerabilities and needs must be reflected in all action on the climate crisis.
Two students prepare a technology project at the Atal Tinkering Lab in Hyderabad, India.
Frontier technologies
Transformative technologies are advancing at an exponential pace and already affect so much of children’s daily lives. The technologies we are developing and governing today will influence not only how future generations learn, work and communicate, but also their well-being for years to come.
And yet, the digital divide remains stark.
Today, nearly 26 per cent of people in low-income countries are connected to the internet, compared to over 95 per cent in high-income countries.
To be unconnected in a digital world is to be deprived of opportunities in the present and in the future.
Failure to remove barriers for children in low-connectivity countries, especially for those living in the poorest households, means letting an already disadvantaged generation fall even further behind.
A future of promise and peril
As we look to 2050 and beyond, frontier technologies promise dramatic improvements for the lives of children.
Digitalization can empower children. It allows them to create, learn and connect with friends while laying the foundation for their future economic prospects. But these visions of technology’s upsides can only be realized with the right incentives, governance and accountability in place. Without them, children will face missed opportunities or even direct harm.
Opportunities and improved well-being
- Connectivity and digital skills could equip millions of children for the economy of the future.
- Artificial intelligence (AI) and neurotechnology may drive sweeping change in education and healthcare.
- Green technologies have the potential to limit the worst impacts of climate change and support the transition to a low-carbon, more sustainable future.
- Vaccine and medical breakthroughs could save millions more children’s lives.
Threats and harm
- Expanding access to digital technology increases children’s vulnerability to privacy risks, including misuse of personal information and exposure to harmful content.
- Exploitation and cyber threats, including sexual exploitation and abuse, also increase as more children engage online.
- Emerging technologies such as neurotechnology and AI carry potential risks related to cognitive liberty, privacy and algorithmic bias.
As we collectively try to keep pace with frontier technologies, safeguarding children, their lives and health, including their mental health, must be a priority.
Digital equality for every child
Technology alone will not make a better world: its promise can only be fulfilled if societies, governments and companies embed child rights into the design and application of innovations.
To ensure that every child can take advantage of new breakthroughs — including AI, next-generation renewable energy and vaccine breakthroughs — we need to ensure equitable access, robust regulation and child-centric design.
Three future scenarios
A 12-year-old boy sits in an empty classroom in Port Sudan, a gathering point for internally displaced people.
To develop a sense of how the megatrends – along with other significant forces and trends – might influence the future of childhood, this year’s State of the World’s Children Report presents three scenarios of what the future might look like for children depending on rates of progress and on the actions of decision-makers.
- A future shaped by business-as-usual trendlines.
- A future shaped by delayed development (in which decision makers choose a more fragmented path, leading to greater inequality and environmental degradation).
- A future shaped by accelerated development (in which decision makers opt for a more inclusive and sustainable path).
What could 2050 look like for children?
Progress made over the last several decades is improving children’s lives and will continue to do so in the future. The trajectories in survival, life expectancy and education completion continue to rise across all three scenarios.
In other aspects of children’s lives, the future appears less hopeful. The world could become a more unequal place, afflicted by conflict and extreme climate events, where the learning crisis continues and far too many children still experience multiple deprivations.
Children in the world of 2050: Three future scenarios
A future shaped by business-as-usual trendlines
- Child populations in low-income and lower-middle-income countries will surge by the 2050s while they decline elsewhere;
- 8 times more children could be exposed to extreme heatwaves compared to the 2000s;
- The world could fail to achieve universal completion of secondary school for all children.
- More children in Eastern and Southern Africa could be exposed to subnational conflict than they were in the 2000s.
A future shaped by accelerated development
- More than four times more children are expected to be exposed to heatwaves in the 2050s compared with the 2000s.
- However, children's life expectancy at birth could rise from 68 to 84 years;
- The world could see 100 per cent of children completing primary and upper secondary school;
- More children could live in societies with gender equality;
- The number of children exposed to prolonged subnational conflict could drop by 60 per cent.
A future shaped by delayed development
- More children are projected to be living in low-income countries in the 2050s, with millions still not learning in or out of school;
- Nearly 14 times more children are expected to be exposed to extreme heatwaves;
- In some regions, children could still face extreme gender inequality, with 1.1. billion living in gender unequal societies
- Up to 1.4 billion children globally could be at risk of exposure to prolonged subnational conflict.
These scenarios are possible outcomes, not predictions. They are a call for reflection and action: the future remains ours to shape.
The progress and investments we make today and in the coming years have the potential to dramatically change projections for tomorrow’s children.
We can and must do better.
Dig deeper: data to inspire action
Download the SOWC report to explore all future indicators and their impact for children.
Accurate data on children’s well-being are a powerful tool to shape policies, inspire action and create a world where every child can thrive. Access The State of the World’s Children: Statistical Compendium for vital statistics on child survival, development and protection across countries and regions worldwide.
Listen to the future.
Children and young people are powerful agents of change, bringing new ideas and perspectives that can help shape a better future for all of us.
Meaningfully engaging them in governance and decision-making helps the global community understand their priorities and provides a platform for children and young people to be heard and taken seriously.
The future is ours to shape
As we envision a better world for every child, our guide must remain the Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC).
For 35 years, the CRC has supported the betterment of countless children’s lives around the world. It is consistently a touchstone for governments, the UN and multilateral system, businesses and civil society as they develop their policies, approaches and practices to the challenges of today and tomorrow.
The principles of the CRC spotlight where we must focus policies and plans so that children inherit a habitable planet, enjoy a minimum standard of living and benefit from a more equal society and peaceful world.
We must take a future-focused approach to realizing child rights.
Core principles of the Convention on the Rights of the Child
- Non-discrimination underlines the duty to serve the needs of – and deliver opportunity to – every child.
- The best interests of the child provides a test for decisions taken by legislatures, law courts, businesses and others where they relate to children’s well-being.
- The right to life, survival and development emphasizes the need to support every facet of a child’s growth, including their physical and mental health and their social and cultural flourishing.
- The views of the child reflects the importance of ensuring children’s voices are heard and taken seriously in matters that affect them.
A girl plays at a child friendly space in Fada N’gourma, eastern Burkina Faso.
Creating a better future for every child
We can secure the best possible future for all children through decisive, collaborative action.
UNICEF recommends that governments and the public sector, businesses, non-governmental and human rights organizations, and civil society mobilize across three priority areas:
Prepare for demographic transitions
- Invest in early childhood, primary and secondary education; expand teacher training and job creation for youth.
- Expand shock-responsive social protection systems, including paid parental leave and universal child benefits.
- Ensure access to inclusive reproductive, sexual and maternal health services while promoting informed family planning.
- Create child-friendly cities with safe spaces, infrastructure and support for marginalized children.
- Maintain equitable access to services in rural areas experiencing depopulation.
- Ensure intergenerational equity in ageing societies and prioritize children’s rights and public services.
Expand climate resilience
- Integrate climate resilience into local planning and infrastructure, including schools and health centers.
- Invest in climate education to equip children for building a sustainable future.
- Ensure children's needs are addressed in National Adaptation Plans and climate strategies.
- Invest in renewable energy and promote solutions to cut emissions by 43% by 2030.
- Implement large-scale ecosystem restoration and sustainable land management practices.
- Strengthen waste management and combat pollution.
Deliver connectivity and safe design for every child
- Ensure digital equality through infrastructure investments and addressing barriers to full usage.
- Promote digital literacy and skills among children and educators, complementing traditional teaching.
- Strengthen legislation to protect children's rights in digital environments, including new types of crimes.
- Adopt ethical guidelines for technology development, focusing on privacy, data protection and accountability.
- Implement rights-based governance for new technologies, with oversight mechanisms to anticipate risks.
As we look to 2050, we face a choice. We can continue on our current path, risking a future where millions of children are left behind, or we can choose a different course – one where every child flourishes and shapes the world around them.
Now is the time to shape a better future for every child.
Highlights
As we near the end of the first quarter of the 21st century, The State of the World’s Children 2024 looks ahead to the year 2050. It asks: How can we best secure a future where the rights of every child are realized – a world where all children survive, thrive and meet their full potential?
Children's perspectives are included through the voices of UNICEF U-Reporters and Youth Foresight Fellows.
Access The State of the World’s Children: Statistical Compendium for vital statistics on child survival, development and protection across countries and regions worldwide.
