Growing up on a warming planet: Why the green energy transition matters now
Prospects for Children in 2026: A Global Outlook
The green energy transition is at a crossroads. The time to phase out greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and avoid the worst of the impacts from the climate change is narrowing quickly, and it is uncertain what path the world will take: will the transition to green energy continue to accelerate, or will it stall and even retreat as a result of geopolitical tensions including political push-back, global trade disruption and fears from ongoing conflicts? The path the world takes for the green energy transition is extremely important for children, who are the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Their development and well-being are greatly affected by lack of access to affordable, reliable and sustainable energy, and they will live longest with the consequences of today’s decisions. A child-centred green energy transition is not only about cleaner energy, but also about safeguarding the foundations of human development. The progress or regression of the green energy transition will define the living conditions, economic prospects and planetary stability for the 2 billion children alive today – the largest generation in history.
Earth has entered a dangerous phase
Recent headlines warn of an escalating climate emergency: record-breaking heat, widespread drought, and the breaching of the first climate tipping point. In 2023, six of nine planetary boundaries were beyond safe limits. The World Meteorological Organization now confirms that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels hit a record high in 2024, while the global temperatures have already temporarily exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels – locking in further long-term warming and even more severe weather. Yet, with 2030 fast approaching, it remains uncertain whether the world will achieve the green energy transition needed to phase out GHG emissions in time.
The green transition – two divergent pathways
The path towards an accelerated green transition shows that change is possible. In the first half of 2025, solar and wind power exceeded global electricity demand growth and generated more electricity than coal for the first time ever. Fossil fuel generation decreased in several major economies, as clean energy generation outpaced demand growth. This trend is demonstrating that for an increasing number of countries new renewable energy infrastructure is now cheaper than operating existing coal units. Solar and wind are no longer marginal technologies: they are driving the global power system forward. Furthermore, renewables accounted for 46 per cent of global installed power capacity in 2024, with global clean energy investment reaching $2 trillion.
There is (still) a commitment to phase out fossil fuel. Despite the disappointing overall outcome of COP30 in late 2025, and the inability of the majority of countries to agree on a detailed road map for the phase out of fossil fuels, which did not live up to the promise of this year’s Climate Summit at which almost 100 countries announced or outlined their commitment to finalizing or implementing new climate targets ahead of the COP, the conviction to proceed to clean energy was clear. Utilities for Net Zero Alliance (UNEZA) and partners committed to mobilize around $148 billion per year by 2030 for renewable energy, grids and storage, with a focus on emerging markets. COP30 also pushed efficiency and heavy industry further up the agenda and Mission Efficiency, a global coalition hosted by Sustainable Energy for All (SEforALL) launched a Plan to Accelerate Doubling Energy Efficiency by 2030 through policy frameworks, training and investment pipelines. Finally, the Belém Declaration on Global Green Industrialization to accelerate net-zero industry, together with the Belém 4x pledge to quadruple sustainable fuels by 2035, signal that efficiency and cleaner industry are becoming core targets of climate action.
Solar and wind remain paramount, but other alternative technologies are gaining significant importance in the green energy transition. In the quest for a low-carbon, resilient energy future nuclear power, geothermal energy and hydrogen are being increasingly considered. They offer alternatives beyond wind and solar, especially for grid reliability, energy security and decarbonizing tough sectors such as heavy industry, long haul transport and shipping. Their potential to improve children’s lives by providing reliable, sustainable and less expensive heating, cooling and electricity in schools, hospitals and homes deserves further exploration. However, their success is far from guaranteed, and depends on continued policy incentives, investment, technology breakthroughs, and significant community and industry adoption.
The second path demonstrates a rejection of and unequal progress in the green energy transition. Despite the positive momentum, significant geopolitical and economic challenges are impacting the green energy transition. In particular, the United States of America’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and climate negotiations has had global repercussions. Not only has the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for renewable energy growth in the United States over the next five years by almost 50 per cent, but the outlook for global renewable energy capacity growth has had to be revised slightly downward because of this. In contrast to the remarkable growth seen in China and India, in the United States, clean sources did not keep pace with rising demand, so fossil fuel generation increased. This United States’ anti-climate stance has wider consequences as it undermines the speed, scale and equity of the green transition both domestically and globally by weakening international cooperation. This was acutely felt at this year’s COP, at a time when it is sorely needed. Despite being a major player in clean tech research and development (R&D), weak government support risks sidelining it – slowing innovation, deterring investment and hindering commercialization. This leads to reduced funding and higher emissions – undermining urgent climate goals.
Global trade tensions and ongoing conflicts add more hurdles and unpredictability. Climate action risks slipping down priority lists during times of instability, especially as attention and financing are diverted to other matters such as defence. Despite the growth seen in China and India, clean energy investment across emerging and developing economies remains limited. This imbalance risks leaving more than half of the world’s population behind, creating a two-speed transition in which advanced economies move ahead while others fall further behind. Meanwhile, the emerging AI technologies, hoped to help address the climate crisis, are creating more environmental challenges (see ‘Data infrastructure in the AI era: Power, protection and data justice’).
The uncertain and conflicting path risks exacerbating rather than addressing existing global inequalities. The shift to a low-carbon economy can deepen existing inequalities if not managed carefully. Prioritizing speed or profit over fairness and equity can leave vulnerable groups behind: fossil fuel workers may lose jobs without support, low-income families might face higher costs or limited access to green technologies, and marginalized communities could bear the brunt of resource extraction and environmental harm. Without policies that centre equity and children, the green energy transition could reinforce existing social, economic and environmental injustices within and across countries, especially for children, who are among the hardest hit by inadequate energy access, threatening decades of progress on their survival and development..
Why the green energy transition matters for children
Continued reliance on fossil fuels drives emissions that worsen air pollution and intensify climate-induced extreme weather, severely affecting children’s health, safety and well-being. It heightens the risk of respiratory illnesses and other climate-related diseases. Meanwhile, floods, droughts and heatwaves destroy homes, schools and health centres – displacing families, disrupting education and limiting access to essential services. Marginalized children face the greatest risks with fewer resources to cope, further deepening existing inequalities. Reliable access to clean, affordable and sustainable energy is therefore a critical enabler of child well-being – improving the quality, accessibility and resilience of education, health care, and water, sanitation and hygiene services. An accelerated, just and inclusive green transition offers clean air, reliable schools and hospitals, decent jobs in new sectors, and resilient food and water systems. By contrast, a stalled or unequal transition risks worsening hunger, displacement and disease, and widening child poverty and inequality. A child-centred approach to the green energy transition can safeguard children’s health today while creating a more equitable and sustainable future for all.
The way forward
Children and young people are not just passive victims of the climate crisis – they are powerful agents of change. Yet, climate action, including the green transition, too often overlooks their unique needs and perspectives. Protecting children and preparing them for a climate-affected future and the green energy transition must be central to our responses. This requires advancing child-responsive climate and energy policies at national and global levels, while strengthening the resilience of education and health systems to climate-related risks. Priority should be given to ensuring that schools and health-care facilities are equipped with climate-resilient infrastructure and powered by affordable, reliable, low-carbon energy sources, to safeguard the continuity of essential services for children.
Acknowledgements: We would like to thank the following colleagues for their review and feedback: Manasi Nanavati, Sean Storr and Swathi Manchikanti.
