Rethinking child protection in an age of disorder and uncertainty

The global humanitarian architecture for protecting children is under profound stress, shaped not by isolated crises but by a polycrisis of geopolitical competition, evolving warfare, eroding humanitarian norms and overstretched funding. As public institutions collapse under the strain of conflict, climate shocks and fiscal crises, essential social services – from case management and family support to justice mechanisms – weaken or vanish, leaving humanitarian actors to fill a gap they cannot fully replace. In these fragmented governance environments, children face heightened risks. The imperative to protect children during crises has never been more urgent, yet the very systems meant to shield them are fraying, demanding a reimagining of protection approaches suited to an increasingly politicized and fractured world.

A more dangerous world for children: The shifting humanitarian landscape

Armed conflict today is more fragmented, protracted and urbanized than in previous decades. Technology is becoming deeply embedded in warfare while geopolitical rivalries shape local conflicts. Civilian infrastructure is routinely destroyed, humanitarian access is constrained, and the distinction between war and peace is blurred by ‘grey-zone’ tactics. This shifting landscape forms the backdrop against which children are facing (and will likely continue to face) escalating threats. Governments must remain steadfast in providing safeguards and protection from violence, exploitation and abuse, in line with the obligations anchored in international law including the Convention on the Rights of the Child.

Complex and protracted armed conflicts will continue to present severe risks to children in 2026. The year 2025 was marked by the headline conflicts in the Sudan, Ukraine, Myanmar and the Middle East. But beyond these flashpoints, a constellation of ‘forgotten’ wars continued to grind on across nearly every region, with some 120 conflicts running at the end of the year. That trend shows little sign of abating in 2026 or beyond.

Urban warfare is a central feature of this new landscape, placing children at extraordinary risk. Conflicts fought in densely populated cities destroy water, sanitation, power systems and health-care facilities: services upon which children’s survival depends. Explosive weapons now account for more than 60 per cent of child casualties, and unexploded ordnance continues to injure children long after the fighting ends. Urban displacement compounds the danger as governance structures erode, services fragment and humanitarian access becomes highly constrained.

New technology is and will continue to pose new challenges for children in conflict-affected countries. Advances in artificial intelligence (AI), biometrics, robotics, computing, and chemistry and biology, while offering immense promise to improve the lives of children, can also cause great harm when used for war. Cyber operations, for example, can disable hospitals, disrupt social services and compromise child protection data systems.

Adding to these pressures is the growing disregard for the laws and norms meant to shield children and other civilians. Attacks on schools and hospitals, the recruitment and use of children, and sieges that weaponize hunger have become far too familiar in modern conflict. Humanitarian access is increasingly challenged, and organizations face bureaucratic blockages, criminalization of aid, and what appears to be deliberate obstruction. And attacks are also now taking place in a ‘grey zone’, lying under the legal threshold of armed conflict. The cumulative effect is a shrinking humanitarian space where the most fundamental rights of children are routinely violated with impunity. Yet, the rules of war and international humanitarian law are not optional and the protection they (should) provide is needed more than ever. States must rally around these norms, respect them and also hold those responsible for child rights and international human-rights law violations accountable in appropriate courts and through all available mechanisms – nationally and internationally.

Humanitarian financing is tightening just as needs deepen. As a consequence, the architecture that has supported child survival and welfare for the past 25 years is weakening. The global aid system is attempting to respond to a record high number of crises amid high levels of uncertainty and with budgets that are no longer keeping pace. Donor fatigue, domestic austerity measures, inflation and shifting geopolitical priorities have converged into a chronic resource gap.

While major humanitarian appeals remain significantly underfunded, programmes that aim to protect children from violence, exploitation, abuse and neglect are under even greater pressure. The sector was already suffering from chronic underfunding and, as child protection is not always considered life-saving, it may see further losses in the new environment. A survey of 250 child protection practitioners working in settings of humanitarian crisis across 55 countries reveals how aid cuts in 2025 have already impacted a wide range of child protection thematic areas and contributed to the rapid diminishing of capacity among national and local actors in particular. Resource constraints have contributed to the weakening of international coordination capacity through the consolidation of the humanitarian cluster system: child protection has been absorbed into the broader protection cluster both globally and nationally. It is hoped that this mainstreaming will not lead to deprioritization and related reduction in visibility and resources.

The toll on children

This challenging new environment has taken and will continue to take a heavy toll on children in several important ways. More than one in five children were living in conflict-affected areas in 2025 (see Figure 2). Documented grave violations against children in armed conflict situations – killing and maiming, recruitment by armed forces and armed groups, sexual violence, abduction, attacks on schools and hospitals, and the obstruction of humanitarian access against children – rose by 25 per cent in 2024. Attacks on educational facilities increased by 44 per cent in 2024 alone, pushing children out of safe learning environments and sometimes harming them. Funding gaps are likely to degrade other protective services, such as family tracing for separated children, case management and preventative action.

Record numbers of children remain displaced. By the end of 2024, nearly 50 million children were displaced worldwide, many of them increasingly trapped in protracted displacement, now averaging years rather than months. Families experience multiple displacements within countries and across borders. Climate change will increasingly exacerbate this, leading more people to migrate in the coming years. In these contexts, the protective environment for children is eroded: family capacity is strained, protective community structures such as schools break down, and local security services may cease to function. Prolonged economic stress pushes adolescents into early marriage, hazardous labour, and survival economies.

Inequality intersects with conflict, displacement and climate vulnerability, often concentrating harm among the poorest families and marginalized groups.

Crucially, the consequences are not evenly distributed. Inequality intersects with conflict, displacement and climate vulnerability, often concentrating harm among the poorest families and marginalized groups. Without a coherent protection architecture, the cumulative toll becomes generational.