New era for NGOs: Reimagining civil society’s role and possibilities
Prospects for Children in 2026: A Global Outlook
The NGO sector faces unprecedented uncertainty as multiple challenges converge: financial support has decreased, political restrictions have multiplied, and public trust has eroded. These changes are accelerating longer-term transformation in the sector, with NGOs merging, closing or shifting operational models. This transformation is already under way, but how individual organizations will respond to the changes, how specific sectors will adapt and the implications for children are uncertain. The way ahead requires greater prioritization, more coordination among stakeholders, and building more resilient structures capable of navigating ongoing uncertainty.
Financial crisis and shrinking civic space
Recent trends suggest that fundamental shifts are under way in the non-profit sector, deeply disrupting the operational model that has sustained non-governmental organizations (NGOs) for decades. Although the number of people in need of life-saving assistance has increased, financial support from traditional donors has dried up at an alarming pace in recent years: global development aid could drop by 9 to 17 per cent in 2025 and remains highly uncertain beyond that. Many of the world’s largest funders have significantly cut their aid budgets, while private philanthropy and increased contributions from other donor countries have not been able to replace lost funding. Philanthropic foundations, in turn, are also under pressure from authoritarian governments. Funding reductions have disproportionately affected civil society organizations working in sectors typically targeted by authoritarian regimes: gender equality, climate change, sexual reproductive health and rights, minority rights, migration and support to democracy.
Political restrictions and declining public trust have compounded financial challenges. Over the past three decades, more than 130 countries have adopted restrictions on international and foreign-funded NGOs, ranging from burdensome requirements to legal sanctions, imprisonment and violent repression. These measures reflect the broader democratic backsliding and shrinking civic space that we have reported on in previous Global Outlook reports. At the same time, public confidence in NGOs has declined to its lowest levels in decades: after 20 years of Edelman Trust Barometer polling across 28 countries, 2018 marked the first year respondents reported more trust in businesses than in NGOs. In some countries, young people show lower levels of trust in NGOs compared with older adults. This trust deficit is linked to a global reduction in trust in all institutions, but also to a perceived lack of results delivered by NGOs, public scandals, and the notion that businesses are more efficient. Together, these political and reputational challenges have weakened NGOs’ claims of legitimacy and their ability to operate effectively.
New models and uncertain outcomes
Working in this context requires financial diversification, coordination, efficiency and innovation. For example, some NGOs are becoming social enterprises, combining their social missions with more sustainable ‘business models’, while others are merging their teams and resources. In 2025, international NGOs all over the globe began responding to funding cuts by considering new organizational strategies and models, such as transferring assets to local partners, mobilizing flexible funding, supporting alternative funding for local organizations, and leveraging digital fundraising – approaches that show promise but also risk prioritizing institutional survival over genuine partnership commitments. Digital tools and AI are also enabling new forms of advocacy, data-driven service delivery and direct community engagement. Yet, with the design of these tools concentrated in high-income regions, cost constraints, lack of regulation and language digitization gaps mean that many organizations – especially in low- and middle-income countries – may miss this transformation.
In the short to medium term, the financial transformation in the non-profit sector will continue to have direct human consequences. Many activities interrupted by sudden aid cuts were essentially humanitarian – supporting refugees, ensuring food security in conflict zones, and fighting HIV/AIDS. This resulted in considerable disruption to the structures of service provision and to the lives of people, including vulnerable children, who depend on them. Cuts by some major donors are estimated to cause at least 4.5 million additional child deaths by 2030. A UNICEF report indicated that education aid cuts between 2023 and 2026 could potentially cost affected children $164 billion in lifetime earnings.
In the medium to longer term, the outcomes remain deeply uncertain. As the sector transforms with fewer, larger organizations, a smaller and less diverse civil society could mean weaker protections for vulnerable children and a diminished accountability framework for rights violations. Critical advocacy work around child rights may give way to service provision as organizations focus on activities adaptable to social enterprise models or appealing to donors. While some traditional donors often prioritized grass-roots organizations, emerging donors may favour large-scale infrastructure projects, potentially ending a model of development that empowered local stakeholders and strengthened civic space.
At the same time, scarce resources and greater competition could lead to greater efficiency in delivering social services. More local ownership could emerge from resource constraints along with new partnerships, potentially yielding more relevant and context-specific services designed with rather than for affected communities. Whether potential benefits from localization and innovation will materialize or whether the sector will simply contract remains uncertain, but children impacted by the services delivered by the non-profit sector will bear the consequences either way.
A case for coordination and collaboration
Ultimately, this new era for civil society and non-profit organizations requires funders, governments and NGOs themselves to make difficult choices about which services to maintain and which populations to serve. This ‘doing less with less’ reality demands transparency about trade-offs and participatory but honest assessment of what can realistically be achieved with available resources.
In this context of resource constraints and shrinking civic space, coordination and collaboration have become more urgent. More limited funding for multilateral institutions could further restrict the platforms for deliberation where NGOs traditionally convene to address common challenges. This is particularly critical as member states begin discussing a post-Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework.
United Nations organizations will need to play facilitation roles at country, regional and global levels, convening stakeholders to identify priorities and avoid duplication. This may also require strengthening United Nations-wide coordination mechanisms to pool resources and amplify collective impact. UNICEF and child rights organizations could also call on states to recognize child well-being as a global common good, triggering further recognition of child rights work, unlocking public funding and more collective action.
The stakes are highest for the world’s most vulnerable children, who depend on local organizations for their survival and development in contexts where governments may fail or be unable to provide adequate services. UNICEF and other United Nations organizations have benefited greatly from collaborations with civil society organizations to help fill these gaps across the world. The time has come to deliberately build more resilient structures in the non-profit sector – structures capable of weathering whatever storms lie ahead.
