The Future of Lebanon’s Children

Highlights

Lebanon’s children are growing up in a period of profound uncertainty, shaped by a complex combination of global transformations: technological, environmental and geopolitical shifts, as well as by the recent regional and domestic crises. The country’s ability to protect and invest in its next generation now stands at a crossroads. While many pressures are structural or externally driven, the future of Lebanon’s children ultimately depends on national choices: the policies adopted, the investments made, and the capacity to build resilience. This report looks ahead to what Lebanon could look like for children by 2050 under different trajectories of action or inaction, drawing on the State of the World’s Children 2024 and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) framework to translate macro trends into future child outcomes.

The scenarios highlight three decisive choices for Lebanon’s future. Demographically, the window is closing: fertility is projected to fall sharply, youth emigration is rising, and the demographic dividend may end by 2028. Yet strategic investment in education, skills, and inclusive services can turn this shift into resilience. In education, the 2050 learning gap is a choice: post-secondary completion could reach 61% with reform, or stagnate at 37% without it, determining whether the next generation is prepared for a digital and green economy. On poverty, outcomes could diverge dramatically: with strong social protection, poverty could fall from 44% to 19% by 2050; while under weak governance, it could exceed 50%. Expanding child grants, disability allowances, and shock-responsive safety nets is essential to move toward the positive path. Across all three fronts, the message is clear: the decisions Lebanon takes today will define the opportunities available to every child tomorrow.