How will childhood look in the 21st century?

Picture this: a child born today in a remote village, her future hanging in the balance, shaped by the choices we make right now. This isn't a hypothetical scenario — it's the urgent reality we face at this critical crossroads in history. The world faces a series of interconnected challenges, from climate change to persistent economic inequality and geopolitical instability. Addressing these issues requires a broad, integrated approach that seeks comprehensive, equitable solutions across sectors. Tackling these challenges is essential not just for economic stability, but for safeguarding the future well-being of the most vulnerable populations.

Following the Summit of the Future, where nations reaffirmed their dedication to multilateralism and the collective pursuit of global cooperation, it is crucial to understand the consequences of inaction. This Explainer outlines four quantified scenarios for the long-term future, exploring the impact of different paths on development, climate, and geopolitics. These scenarios account for varying levels of technological progress, resource use and cooperation. Each scenario presents unique challenges and opportunities, offering policymakers a forward-looking framework to anticipate future development trajectories.

By contrasting the risks of inaction with the potential of a more united world, we gain a clearer vision of the stakes involved in this global commitment. The goal is to foster proactive strategies that ensure a resilient and equitable world for future generations.

What is the current state of the world?

We've made remarkable strides in human development over recent decades: lifespans are longer, more children are in school, and economies have grown. Yet, this progress has been uneven, leaving millions behind. Global life expectancy has increased by more than 17 years, and child mortality rates have dramatically dropped, particularly among children under five. These advancements reflect concerted efforts from governments, international organizations, and civil society to strengthen education and healthcare systems.

But the shadow of inequality still looms large. Today, almost three quarters of a billion people – that's more than the entire population of Europe – live in extreme poverty, with the burden falling disproportionately on communities in Central and South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Malnutrition persists, with 690 million people undernourished and 144 million children suffering from stunted growth. Access to education has improved, but 64 million children remain out of school, primarily in Central and South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

To put this in perspective, imagine two children born on the same day — one in a high-income country and another in Sub-Saharan Africa. The child in Sub-Saharan Africa is 12 times more likely to die before their fifth birthday, highlighting the stark disparities in our global community.

Geographical disparities in child mortality rates are stark, with rates in Sub-Saharan Africa (72 deaths per 1,000 live births) and Central and South Asia (37 deaths) far from meeting the UN’s 2030 target. Environmental degradation further complicates human development. Air pollution causes 6.7 million premature deaths annually, disproportionately affecting children, and around 1 million species face extinction due to human activity.

Fossil fuels remain the dominant energy source, despite efforts to transition to renewables, exacerbating environmental harm. Climate change, driven by rising CO2 emissions, leads to biodiversity loss and increased disease prevalence. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are rising, with conflicts escalating, resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths. The intertwined challenges of human development and environmental degradation necessitate urgent, coordinated action to sustain the progress made and address ongoing inequalities.

Scenario 1: Divided prosperity - our current path

Picture a world where technological progress is like a high-speed train, but only some countries have tickets to board. This is the essence of the divided prosperity scenario.

A world of divided prosperity reflects ongoing trends since the Cold War, marked by significant but uneven distribution of technological and material resources. Developed countries benefit from rapid adoption of technologies like Artificial Intelligence, driving productivity and progress, while infrastructure-poor developing nations lag behind, deepening global inequality. As nations retreat inward, the flames of conflict and the threat of climate change intensify, casting a long shadow over our collective future.

Global GDP rises from US$95.4 trillion in 2024 to US$210 trillion by 2050, with GDP per capita increasing from US$17,100 to US$28,500. Regions like Central and South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa experience economic growth, but population growth limits per capita gains, leaving these areas behind the global average by mid-century. Despite this, improvements in well-being are notable. Extreme poverty will decline from 8.6 per cent today to 4.7 per cent in 2050, and in Sub-Saharan Africa, poverty drops from 35 per cent to 15 per cent. Global malnutrition is expected to halve, from 554 million to 247 million, with Sub-Saharan Africa rates falling from 17.2 per cent to 6.1 per cent.

Yet, eliminating poverty and hunger remains elusive. By 2030, 99 countries are on track to end extreme poverty, but 75 will still struggle by 2050. Hunger eradication will be achieved by 109 countries by 2030 and 126 by 2050. The environmental cost is high, with carbon emissions rising to 11.6 billion tons and CO2 levels nearing 500 ppm by 2050, leading to a 2°C temperature rise.

Children in this scenario grow up amid rapid technological shifts but with uneven access to their benefits. Global primary school enrollment approaches 100 per cent by 2050, though SDG4 will only be met in 64 per cent of countries. Health outcomes show progress, with child malnutrition dropping from 13.7 per cent to 6.6 per cent and stunting from 22.2 per cent to 11.3 per cent, but regional disparities persist—over 28 million children in Central and South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa will still suffer from malnutrition by 2050.

Scenario 2: Global synergy - a better world

Imagine a future where nations unite, not compete, and technology becomes a force for good, lifting all boats. This is the promise of global synergy, a world where cooperation and innovation pave the way for a sustainable and equitable future. Unlike divided prosperity, global synergy features a revitalized multilateral system that drives green infrastructure, education, and public health improvements. This scenario focuses on equitable resource distribution and the governance of technologies like AI to reduce inequalities.

Breaking free from the grip of entrenched power structures won't be easy. History shows that real change often comes only in the face of overwhelming crises, like the COVID-19 pandemic, that force us to rethink our priorities. The pandemic offered a harsh lesson: while crises can spark moments of unity, lasting solutions to global challenges like climate change and inequality require a sustained commitment to cooperation, not just a fleeting response to emergencies. A transition to global synergy requires complex negotiations, the realignment of economic incentives, and addressing historical inequities.

Economically, global GDP rises to US$232 trillion by 2050, with per capita GDP reaching US$31,300. This scenario slashes poverty rates, lifting millions out of destitution. By 2050, only 0.4 per cent of the global population (40.3 million people) remain in poverty, and Sub-Saharan Africa sees a dramatic drop in poverty rates from 35 per cent to 1.5 per cent. Technological advances and global cooperation drive a low-carbon economy, cutting carbon emissions by half and keeping global temperature rise below 1.5°C.

Children benefit significantly from this scenario. By 2050, malnutrition and stunting decline dramatically, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Mortality rates for children under five meet SDG targets before 2030, and primary and secondary school enrollment improves globally. Health care, agriculture, and education technologies play a key role in enhancing child well-being, supported by international collaboration.

Global synergy offers a path to a more equitable and sustainable future, but achieving this requires overcoming entrenched power dynamics and ensuring that resources and technologies are shared to benefit all. The scenario’s outcomes contrast sharply with those under divided prosperity, illustrating the need for sustained global cooperation.

Scenario 3: Fragmented world - resource constraints and crises

The fragmented world scenario is a stark warning: a future where dwindling resources, environmental collapse, and fractured international relations lead to a downward spiral of human development. Though we are still discovering conventional energy resources, they are limited, and their depletion threatens global development. Climate change worsens the earth’s carrying capacity, leading to food production shortages and environmental tipping points. In this scenario, technological progress stagnates, with rising cybersecurity costs as disruptive actors leverage advanced technologies like quantum computing. The unchecked use of such technologies stirs fear for children's well-being. Global trade becomes more protectionist, while investment declines, agricultural yields grow slowly, and widespread poverty persists.

The economic outlook in this scenario is bleak. By 2050, global GDP limps to US$151.8 trillion, far below the projections of other scenarios. Meanwhile, GDP per capita stagnates at US$21,100, painting a picture of a world struggling to progress. Poverty rates remain alarmingly high, with 731 million people living in poverty — 290 million more than in the divided prosperity scenario. In Sub-Saharan Africa, poverty persists at 22.2 per cent, with 451 million people affected. Children suffer from slow improvements in health, with malnutrition rates dropping only slightly from 13.7 per cent to 10.5 per cent, leaving 50 million children malnourished. Stunting remains widespread, affecting 13 per cent of children. The mortality rate for under-fives improves only modestly, from 34.1 deaths per 1,000 today to 21.1 by 2050, with Sub-Saharan Africa still seeing over 38 deaths per 1,000 live births. Educational outcomes stagnate, with universal primary education far from achieved and secondary education completion rates remaining below 65 per cent. Educational attainment levels plateau at around 10.6 years.

Environmentally, the outlook is similarly grim. Renewable energy sources struggle to scale, rising only from 9 per cent in 2024 to 15 per cent in 2050 due to poor governance, infrastructural limitations, and weak incentives. Fossil fuel reliance grows, with energy production increasing from 82.5 BBOE to 109 BBOE by 2050. Carbon emissions soar to 1.4 billion tons, a 150 per cent increase from projections under current policies. This pushes CO2 levels to 531 ppm by mid-century, causing a 2.7°C rise in global temperatures compared to 1990 levels, further exacerbating environmental challenges.

Scenario 4: Struggling together - collective action in the face of adversity

In contrast, the struggling together scenario offers a more hopeful path, where crises unite nations and drive enhanced global cooperation. Though resource-constrained, collective efforts focus on solving problems left by earlier generations, prioritizing green infrastructure, education, and governance reforms. Economic growth remains slower than in global synergy or divided prosperity, with global GDP reaching US$175.7 trillion by 2050. However, governance reforms addressing domestic inequalities raise GDP per capita to US$25,100, while global poverty drops to 1 per cent, sparing 343 million people from poverty compared to divided prosperity. In Sub-Saharan Africa, poverty rates decline significantly to 3.6 per cent, reflecting the benefits of sustained cooperation and collective action.

Children's outcomes improve compared to the fragmented world scenario. Malnutrition rates decline to 9.2 per cent globally by 2050, while stunting drops to 10.6 per cent. Primary-school completion rates approach 100 per cent, and secondary education completion rises to over 78 per cent, reflecting the positive impact of global cooperation. The mortality rate for under-fives improves dramatically, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, where rates fall to below 25 deaths per 1,000 by mid-century.

While resource limitations hamper rapid advancement, the struggling together scenario still outperforms the fragmented world scenario in environmental outcomes. Unlike the runaway emissions in the divided prosperity scenario, this scenario sees carbon emissions reduced to under 6 billion tons by 2050, driven by collective efforts to prioritize sustainability. However, the scenario also highlights that while cooperation improves environmental outcomes and addresses some developmental challenges, the limited availability of technology and material resources constrains the pace of progress. Child well-being indicators in the struggling together scenario reflect these mixed outcomes, showing improvement over fragmented world and divided prosperity but falling short of the rapid advancements seen in global synergy.

This scenario demonstrates the potential for global crises to act as catalysts for cooperation and reform. By working together, nations can better tackle pressing issues such as climate change, poverty, and inequality, even in a resource-constrained world.

Moving towards a sustainable world

Improving global cooperation is complex but crucial. It requires changes at every level, from international institutions to grassroots movements. Central to this effort should be the well-being of children, as their future depends on the decisions made today. In the divided prosperity scenario, technological progress and material resources enhance the quality of life for many, but these advancements come at the cost of a strained environment, threatening long-term outcomes for children.

Technology alone cannot save us. To harness its full potential for good, we need wise governance and collaborative policies that put the well-being of children at the forefront. The global synergy scenario envisions a world where robust global collaboration enforces investments in key areas such as social protection, education, healthcare, renewable energy, and better governance. These efforts are essential for securing a future where children can thrive.

Transitioning to this sustainable pathway requires stronger international institutions. Addressing environmental challenges calls for binding mechanisms beyond the Paris Agreement, focusing on sustainable resource use, biodiversity, and reducing consumption. Prioritizing economic integration, while acknowledging historical inequalities, can build a more equitable global economy. This interconnectedness fosters shared interests, promoting stability and cooperation, which benefits children by providing a safer, more prosperous world.

Multilateral institutions must also prioritize democratic decision-making that upholds children's well-being. Governments should support these institutions by developing binding global agreements that safeguard children's rights. Cultural exchanges can further foster mutual understanding, promoting a more inclusive global society. Additionally, reducing incentives for military investments and redirecting resources toward education, healthcare, and sustainability will create a safer and more nurturing environment for all children.

While entrenched power, wealth, and national sovereignty present obstacles to achieving global cooperation, the current trajectory is unsustainable. The future well-being of children is uncertain, and we must act before irreversible damage is done. If a crisis were to shift the world from divided prosperity to a fragmented world, it could be disastrous, but it might also act as a catalyst for governance reform. This possibility underscores the importance of having a plan for mechanisms and policies that could lead to global synergy.

Developing such a plan would not only prepare us for future crises but also stimulate discussions on how to build global cooperation now. It offers a roadmap for the future, where collective action and international collaboration become more urgent than ever.

The future is not preordained. We are the architects of our children's destiny. By choosing to build bridges instead of walls, by prioritizing the long-term health of our planet over fleeting profits, we can create a world where every child has the chance to flourish.

To learn more about the four scenarios facing children in the twenty-first century, read Navigating The Future: Four scenarios assessing child well-being in the twenty-first century.