El Niño threatens children in Viet Nam and 190 million across Asia and the Pacific – UNICEF

BANGKOK/HANOI, 7 October 2026 – An estimated 190 million children across Asia and the Pacific live in areas expected to experience unusually wet or dry conditions linked to the 2026-2027 global El Niño climate phenomena between October and December 2026 – the largest number of any region globally, UNICEF warned today.  

The 2026–2027 El Niño is forecast to become one of the strongest on record. Changing rainfall patterns are expected to increase the likelihood of severe droughts, flooding and other extreme weather, threatening children's health, nutrition, education, protection and access to safe water, sanitation and hygiene services.  

“For millions of children across Asia and the Pacific, El Niño risks becoming another crisis on top of the multiple pressures already affecting their lives,” said Sanjay Wijesekera, UNICEF Regional Director for Asia and the Pacific. Many children and families are already struggling with the effects of climate shocks, conflict, displacement and economic hardship. El Niño could put even greater pressure on their health, nutrition, education and safety.” 

In Viet Nam, the greatest risks and impact are expected from late 2026 through the dry season until May 2027. The South-Central Coast, Central Highlands and Mekong Delta are likely to face worsening drought, water shortages, extreme heat and saltwater intrusion, threatening children and families who depend on vulnerable water sources and climate-sensitive livelihoods.

In the most affected areas in Viet Nam, water scarcity, extreme heat and livelihood losses could increase the risks of undernutrition and disease, interrupt children’s learning, and place additional pressures on families already struggling to meet essential needs which could lead to an increase in poverty and other negative coping mechanisms. 

UNICEF is working with governments and partners across the region to strengthen early warning and preparedness, pre-position critical supplies, protect essential services and reinforce climate-resilient systems. These efforts depend on adequate, timely and flexible funding, including for anticipatory action, so countries and communities can prepare and respond before risks escalate. 

While no widespread El Niño-related humanitarian needs have yet been confirmed in Viet Nam to date, UNICEF is working with the Government and partners to strengthen preparedness and climate resilience, early warning and anticipatory action. This includes communication to communities and families to store water and be aware of the drought risks, support to strengthen local preparedness capacities, pre-positioning and readiness of essential supplies, and helping national and subnational counterparts to prepare for El Niño-related increased needs and strengthen preparedness of water, health, nutrition, education and child protection services – so that action can be taken before impacts escalate.

The potential scale of the impact is significant. During the last major El Niño in 2015–2016, Viet Nam suffered an estimated US$674 million in economic losses, while around 2 million people had limited access to water, 1.1 million people were food insecure and more than 2 million people lost income from damaged livelihoods.

“The forecasts are clear, and the time to prepare is now,” said Michaela Bauer, UNICEF Deputy Representative in Viet Nam. “Timely investment in early warning, safe water, prevention, early detection and treatment of acute malnutrition, [LL1] essential services and anticipatory action, for example through cash assistance to vulnerable families, can prevent a climate shock from becoming a deeper crisis for children and families.”

UNICEF is working with the Government, the Viet Nam Red Cross and other partners to monitor emerging risks, identify high-risk communities and essential facilities, strengthen frontline readiness, protect water supplies and prepare anticipatory support for vulnerable families.

 ### 

Notes to editors 

The 190 million figure estimates the number of children living in areas across Asia and the Pacific where rainfall between 2026-2027 is forecast to be unusually dry or unusually wet because of El Niño. It is an estimate of exposure to unusual rainfall conditions, not the number of children expected to be directly impacted. 

The estimates combine the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts seasonal forecast issued in September 2026 with WorldPop child population data and an El Niño footprint based on historical events from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society. The forecast has an approximate spatial resolution of 110 kilometres and therefore provides broad population estimates rather than precise local counts. 

Global analysis of El Niño’s impact on children is available here: UNICEF Fast Facts: Over 347 million children in nearly 100 countries will be exposed to one of the strongest El Niño events on record 

Additional analysis on El Niño’s impact in Asia and the Pacific by OCHA is available here: Asia and the Pacific: Snapshot of El Niño & Middle East Crisis (as of 28 August 2026) | OCHA 

Additional analysis on El Niño’s impact in Viet Nam is available here El Niño 2026–2027 Early Warning and Preparedness | UNICEF Viet Nam