El Niño 2026-2027

El Niño is expected to reduce seasonal rainfall in Timor-Leste from Nov 2026 to Apr 2027

This could cause extreme drought and heat, water shortages, erratic rainfall and reduced agricultural production. Children face the greatest consequences across health, nutrition, education and protection. Early and anticipatory action remains the best and most affordable solution.

Read UNICEF's analysis of how droughts affect children, what causes El Niño, and see current conditions, the hotspot map, and a seasonal outlook:

Click to learn more: "EL NIÑO 2026: Timor-Leste Child-Centered Outlook" 

While the precise strength and effects of El Niño still remain uncertain, its potential impacts on children could be significant. UNICEF’s preliminary scenario mapping estimates that around 100,000 children under five could face additional nutritional risks, exacerbating the 45 per cent already stunted. Across the broader range, an estimated 200,000 children and adolescents aged 0 to 19 years could face increased, yet interconnected risks including deterioration in child and maternal nutrition, reduced access to safe water, increasing the risk of diarrhoeal and other water-related diseases; interruptions to school attendance, heightened child-protection risks, including harmful coping mechanisms; and increased pressure on health facilities and essential services, particularly in remote and climate-vulnerable communities.

Need to know:

• Act before crisis peaks: Preparedness can prevent avoidable malnutrition, unsafe water exposure, learning loss and protection risks.
• Water security protects children: Safe water is the first line of defence for health, hygiene, school attendance and dignity, especially for women and girls.
• Climate shocks are child shocks: Drought affects food, health, learning, mental well-being and protection, not only agriculture.
• Funding now saves more later: Early investment enables faster, more targeted and more cost-effective action in the highest-risk municipalities.