Generation 2050 in Central Asia

Highlights

Executive summary

Kyrgyzstan’s demographic moment

Kyrgyzstan’s population has grown from approximately 5 million in 2000 to nearly 7 million in 2025 and is projected to reach around 10 million by 2050.1 Over half the population are currently under the age of 30, and the working-age cohort (15–64 years) is expanding steadily. The median age has risen from just above 21 years in 2000 to around 25 years in 2025 and will exceed 30 years by 2050, reflecting a country in the midst of a significant demographic transition.

Three structural features define the current context. First, the Bishkek–Chuy corridor in the north of the country and the Osh–Jalal-Abad axis in the Fergana Valley in the south absorb the majority of population growth, intensifying pressure on housing, infrastructure, and public services. Second, persistent net emigration, with roughly 28 per cent of the working-age population residing abroad, reduces the domestic labour supply and complicates dividend capture.2 Third, the share of children under 18, while still large at 2.7 million, is gradually declining as a proportion of the total population, signalling the transition towards a more balanced age structure.