Between Peaks and Valleys
The Unequal Climate Burden on children in Tajikistan
Highlights
Climate change is one of the most pressing threats to the rights and wellbeing of children in Tajikistan, where nearly one-third of the population is under the age of 15. Already, 2.5 million children are exposed to extreme heat waves and 2.7 million face water shortages. The combination of high climate vulnerability and widespread child poverty creates an urgent need for targeted investments that address children's specific developmental needs while strengthening climate resilience. Tajikistan ranks 47th globally on UNICEF’s Children’s Climate Risk Index and falls within the “high-risk” category. Children across the country are increasingly exposed to multiple and overlapping climate hazards, including water scarcity, air pollution, and river flooding, all of which disproportionately undermine their health, education, and future development opportunities.
Without decisive action, climate change will impose substantial costs on both children’s development and Tajikistan’s long-term economic prospects. Analysis of the cost of inaction indicates that annual climate-related losses could exceed US$1.58 billion by 2050 in the absence of significant adaptation investments. This represents a fourteen- to fifteen-fold increase in economic costs over the next 25 years, underscoring the accelerating nature of climate risks and their compounded impact on vulnerable populations. These costs include immediate expenditures for healthcare, emergency response, and infrastructure repairs, as well as significant long-term losses resulting from reduced human capital development and lower productivity among future generations.
