UNICEF warns climate impacts on education could lead to US$380 billion in lost earnings across Eastern and Southern Africa
As the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) Board meets in Zambia, new analysis highlights urgent need to mobilize financing and strengthen education systems to address climate-related loss and damage and protect children’s learning
NAIROBI, 20 April 2026 – Climate-related disasters have already cost education systems in Eastern and Southern Africa US$1.3 billion in direct loss and damage to schools and teaching infrastructure, and disrupted learning for 130 million children, according to a new UNICEF and Dalberg report, Protecting Children’s Learning Futures: Quantifying Climate-Related Loss and Damage in Eastern and Southern Africa. The analysis estimates these disruptions have resulted in up to US$140 billion in lost future earnings, which could rise to US$380 billion by 2050 as climate impacts intensify and affect up to 520 million students.
“Children are paying the highest price for a crisis they did not create,” said Etleva Kadilli, UNICEF Regional Director for Eastern and Southern Africa. “For the first time, this report shows the scale of climate-related loss and damage to education, yet the impact on children remain largely invisible in financing decisions. This must change.”
The UNICEF and Dalberg report includes in-depth analysis from Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Somalia and Zambia, demonstrating how increasing and more intense extreme weather events – including floods, droughts, cyclones and heatwaves – are destroying school infrastructure, forcing children out of classrooms, and disproportionately affecting girls, children with disabilities, and marginalized communities.
Zambia’s experience illustrates the scale and human toll. Between 2005 and 2024, floods and droughts disrupted learning for 5 million students and caused US$60 million in immediate education infrastructure losses, while reducing future earnings by up to US$5 billion. The severe 2023–2024 El Niño drought in Southern Africa, one of the worst in decades, left nearly 10 million people without food, water, or power, forcing schools to reduce hours, close temporarily, or send students home early. Rural children and girls were disproportionately affected, with many dropping out to support family livelihoods or facing increased child marriage risks.
Despite these impacts, education receives less than 1.5 per cent of global climate finance, leaving education systems exposed to repeated cycles of loss and recovery. The UNICEF and Dalberg analysis shows that strengthening schools to withstand climate shocks not only protects education but delivers strong economic returns, with every $1 invested generating up to $13 in benefits by reducing damage and interruptions, safeguarding learning continuity, and preserving children’s long-term development and productivity.
“Without stronger prioritization in climate finance, education will continue to bear the brunt of climate impacts, driving repeated disruption,” continued Ms Kadilli. “We must design education systems that anticipate shocks, protect early and foundational learning, and keep schools open. Otherwise, the true cost of climate loss and damage will be measured in lost human potential.”
As the FRLD Board meets in Livingstone later this week, recognizing children not only as those most affected, but as rights-holders with needs, capacities and voices that must shape recovery and resilience, is essential. To protect children’s futures and further advance Africa’s long-term development, UNICEF urges governments, donors, and climate funds to;
- Strengthen the integration of education within national climate frameworks: Explicitly reference education in National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), to help unlock access to climate and loss-and- damage financing.
- Apply a climate-risk lens to domestic education financing: Ensure budget allocations to education are climate-informed, prioritizing the critical, foundational stage of learning for children and continuity of education in the face of climate shocks.
- Scale and target international climate finance for education: Ensure major climate funds, including the Green Climate Fund, Adaptation Fund and the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD), allocate dedicated resources to education, with FRLD specifically supporting unavoidable losses when climate impacts exceed what education systems can adapt to.
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Note to editors:
- Report: UNICEF and Dalberg Protecting Children’s Learning Futures: Quantifying Climate-Related Loss and Damage in Eastern and Southern Africa, on Loss and Damage in Education
- B-roll: Climate and Education Broadcast
Country analyses in the UNICEF and Dalberg report includes:
- Kenya: 2024 floods disrupted schooling and widened gender gaps in re-enrollment, particularly for girls and children with disabilities.
- Somalia: Repeated droughts, floods and conflict have driven mass displacement, leaving millions of children out of school and newly displaced children – especially girls – least likely to attend.
- Mozambique: Cyclones Idai and Kenneth in 2019 showed that while thousands of classrooms were destroyed, those built to resilient standards withstood the impact - highlighting both the returns on investment and the scale of unmet need.
- Ethiopia: Rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves affect 83 per cent of children, and are already disrupting school attendance, reducing concentration in the classroom, and undermining learning outcomes.
