Conflict and Peace Analysis Tool 4

Purpose

To identify key conflict issues and understand the underlying causes and effects.

The Basics

The conflict tree works with one or more core problems, and then identifies the root causes, and the effects of the problem. Effects are the current (or past) manifestations of the conflict: what do we see, how are people affected, what patterns can be observed? Causes are long-term structural issues, underlying factors that result in the conflicts. This can be a first step in conflict analysis – Use this when you need a simple tool to provide the basis for discussion within a programme team or among stakeholders. This exercise is best done by a group in a workshop setting. Draw the tree template, give participants post its or cards, ask participants to write or draw relevant factors, and ask them to post it in the ‘right’ place in the Tree – discuss as a group were to place the factors as causes, or effects and why.

Purpose

To understand conflict parties and their relation to the conflict, including motivations and logic of each group, and identify the power dynamics among the parties.

The Basics

This is a simple tool for developing a conflict profile of strategic conflict stakeholders. You may list the primary (directly involved), secondary (interested), and tertiary (affected) parties, and then identify for each their stated (public) positions or demands, the interests that lie behind those demands, and the basic needs that might be involved. This is the first step of a stakeholder mapping – first understanding each conflict party before moving on to analyse their interactions with each other and with the conflict.

Purpose

To better understand the relationships between parties, identify where power and influence lies, to see who might be potential allies or ‘spoilers’.

The Basics

A tool for graphically showing the relative power/influence and relationships among the parties in conflict. Stakeholder mapping is a technique used to represent the conflict graphically, placing the parties in relation to the problem and in relation to each other. If people with different viewpoints map their situation together, they may learn about each other’s experiences and perceptions. It is important to place the intervener (e.g. UNICEF, partner) in the map to identify potential interactions and influence in support of conflict-sensitive programming.

Purpose

To visualize the ‘history’ of a conflict, to identify patterns to a conflict, that may help to identify future trends including recurrent triggers or dynamics that have led to de-/escalation.

The Basics

You can use a simple arrow as a timeline and ask participants to brainstorm and ‘plot’ key conflict events (positive/negative) since the start of the conflict. You may add a ‘severity’ scale to determine ‘spikes’ in a graph as illustrated, in relation to your choice of relevant dimensions of the conflict – e.g. impact on WASH, number of displaced, number of casualties. If you are using the tool with conflict parties, you may ask them to draw their own individual timelines and compare their ‘conflict narratives’ to discuss similarities/differences and enhance an understanding of the others’ perspectives