20 May 2019

A Business Case and Fiscal Space Analysis for Social Protection in Sierra Leone

The business case and fiscal space analysis serves to generate evidence on the monetization of the cross-sectoral impacts of several social protection interventions, their long-term costs as well as the potential avenues of fiscal space creation over the coming 20 years. In providing evidence on the outcomes and impacts of pro-poor spending, the study can support government stakeholders in advocating for existing and future social protection programmes, as well as more general social and pro-poor spending, while pointing towards potential financing avenues. This will illustrate that social protection is not only an investment, but also affordable – even in developing countries. The evidence will also aid in generating an overall understanding that social protection in Sierra Leone necessitates a structured, concerted and systemized effort by the government and other relevant actors to be effectively and efficiently implemented. As such, the report provides a theoretical overview of both the business case as well as the fiscal space analysis in the context of the Sierra Leone Medium-Term National Development Plan (MTNDP) and the National Social Protection Policy (NSPP). This is followed by an in-depth account of the analytical processes undertaken to estimate the returns to the selected social protection programmes over the coming 20 years, as well as their costs and potential financing avenues. Chapter 1 of this report provides substantial evidence on the background of Sierra Leone, the gaps and opportunities for economic growth in the country, as well as the multifaceted role social protection places in the MTNDP and the NSPP.
23 May 2018

The long-term impacts and costs of Ebola on the Sierra Leonean health sector

The study estimates the future costs of EVD on the Sierra Leonean health sector to range between 9.0 and 19.4 per cent of today’s GDP. While the highest costs are incurred for a 15-year recovery trajectory, amounting to 15.5 and 19.4 per cent of today’s GDP, respective of which baseline is chosen; the cost for a 10-year recovery are significantly lower, at 9.0 and 11.3 per cent of today’s GDP respectively. An even shorter recovery trajectory of five years lowers the sectoral costs to 4.1 and 5.1 per cent of GDP. These findings emphasise the need to address the impact of EVD on the health sector in a timely manner, thereby lowering the future cost to be incurred. Further supporting the call to immediate action, the costing model reveals that assuming a longer recovery period of 10- to 15-years, the majority of the cost of EVD on the health sector are yet to be incurred in the years to come. Hence, the effects and impacts of EVD on the health sector, through non-treatment of other diseases and an overall decrease in health service uptake and quality, are forecast to result in substantial costs in the future. The costing model suggests that in future years, the costs directly incurred by EVD range from 8.3 to 10.2 per cent of the overall health sector cost. In contrast, the cost of HIV/AIDS and malaria are forecast to account for a maximum of 60 and 28 per cent of the overall cost respectively. Therefore, the impact of EVD on the overall health care system, rather than the cost of EVD itself, drives future costs to the health sector.