UNICEF: Sub-Saharan Africa

Angola
Botswana
Burundi
Cameroon
Central African Republic
Côte d'Ivoire
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Kenya
Liberia
Mauritania
Rwanda
Sao Tome and Principe
Somalia
South Africa
Swaziland
United Republic of Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe

Here, the AARR has slowed sharply, falling from 1.3 per cent in 1960-1990 to just 0.3 per cent in the 1990-2002 period.

In 18 countries in the region, the under-five mortality rate has either stayed the same or worsened since 1990.

The causes
Although poor perinatal conditions are still the main cause of infants' dying in the region, infections and diseases are the main killers of children under five. HIV/AIDS is responsible for 8 per cent of all under-five deaths in the region, more than double the global average.

The under-five mortality rates in most of the sub-Saharan countries appear to be less affected by household wealth than in other developing regions. This is in part explained by the high levels of absolute poverty still prevailing in these countries, which are translated into the lack of adequate and essential services at the household level, and lack of health infrastructure and basic resources. However, children born into the poorest 20 per cent of the population are 1.7 times more likely to die before the age of five than the wealthiest 20 per cent, with an excess under-five mortality rate of 80 deaths per thousand live births (181 vs. 100 respectively).

The greatest challenge
Sub-Saharan Africa faces the greatest challenge of any region in meeting MDG 4. The region will need to raise its AARR to 8.2 per cent, almost double the rate originally required, if it is to make the 2015 target.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Country	U5MR 1990	U5MR 2002	MDG target(a) 2015	Progress(b) 1990-2002	Requirement 2002-2015
Botswana	58	110	19	-5.3	13.4
Zimbabwe	80	123	27	-3.6	11.8
Swaziland	110	149	37	-2.5	10.8
Kenya	97	122	32	-1.9	10.2
Cameroon	139	166	46	-1.5	9.8
Cote d'Ivoire	155	176	52	-1.1	9.4
South Africa	60	65	20	-0.7	9.1
Rwanda	178	183	59	-0.2	8.7
Zambia	189	192	63	-0.1	8.6
Tanzania, United Rep. of	163	165	54	-0.1	8.5
Burundi	190	190	63	0.0	8.5
Central African Rep.	180	180	60	0.0	8.5
Congo, Dem. Rep. of the	205	205	68	0.0	8.5
Liberia	235	235	78	0.0	8.5
Mauritania	183	183	61	0.0	8.5
Sao Tome and Principe	118	118	39	0.0	8.5
Somalia	225	225	75	0.0	8.5
Angola	260	260	87	0.0	8.4
Gabon	92	91	31	0.1	8.4
Congo	110	108	37	0.2	8.3
Burkina Faso	210	207	70	0.1	8.3
Chad	203	200	68	0.1	8.3
Nigeria	190	183	63	0.3	8.2
Sierra Leone	302	284	101	0.5	8.0
Togo	152	141	51	0.6	7.9
Senegal	148	138	49	0.6	7.9
Uganda	160	141	53	1.1	7.5
Mali	250	222	83	1.0	7.5
Guinea-Bissau	253	211	84	1.5	7.1
Mozambique	235	197	78	1.5	7.1
Ethiopia	204	171	68	1.5	7.1
Benin	185	156	62	1.4	7.1
Niger	320	265	107	1.6	7.0
Gambia	154	126	51	1.7	6.9
Madagascar	168	136	56	1.8	6.8
Ghana	126	100	42	1.9	6.7
Namibia	84	67	28	1.9	6.7
Mauritius	25	19	8	2.3	6.4
Seychelles	21	16	7	2.3	6.4
Malawi	241	183	80	2.3	6.3
Equatorial Guinea	206	152	69	2.5	6.1
Lesotho	120	87	40	2.7	6.0
Guinea	240	169	80	2.9	5.8
Comoros	120	79	40	3.5	5.2
Cape Verde	60	38	20	3.8	4.9
Eritrea	147	89	49	4.2	4.6

Countries whose AARR has matched or exceeded the implied MDG target in 1990-2002 are shown as shaded.

^(a)

Millennium Development Goal 4 set each country the task of reducing the under-five child mortality rate by two thirds between 1990 and 2015.

^(b)

The speed of progress in reducing the U5MR is measured here by calculating the average annual reduction rate (AARR). Unlike the comparison of absolute changes, the AARR reflects the fact that the lower limits to U5MR are approached only with increasing difficulty. The AARR is calculated on an exponential basis, which assumes a continuous, exponential reduction between two points in time. It does not take into account the intermediate values of the series. To achieve a two-thirds reduction between 1990 and 2015 requires a progress rate of 4.4 per cent or higher.

Surviving and Thriving

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