Responses to disasters and crises through subnational social protection systems
Case studies from governments in Europe and Central Asia
Highlights
This report presents key findings, lessons, and recommendations on how governments in Europe and Central Asia have responded to disasters and crises through subnational social protection systems. Using case studies from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Tajikistan and Ukraine the report identifies key priority areas of work and further development and details seven policy recommendations for the region:
- Guide and support UNICEF country offices in developing the knowledge about decentralisation and its implications in terms of overall governance of social protection and disaster risk management and reduction related.
- Guide and support UNICEF country offices in further documenting core aspects of public financial management in decentralised context and its implications on financing shock responsive social protection.
- Advocate for a more consolidated approach to shock responsive social protection in the region, with sensitisation of national and subnational governments regarding the main administrative and financial implications of delivering support for the most in need during the crises.
- While consolidating the knowledge about decentralisation in general and its implications in terms of overall governance of social protection and disaster risk management and reduction related process, engage in both areas with the subnational governments in pilot projects followed by more strategic partnerships, including with their associative representations.
- While investigating, piloting, and developing programmes and interventions in the area of social protection and disaster risk management, consolidate the knowledge in terms of public financial management in decentralised context and its implications on financing social protection and disaster risk management.
- At national level, review the regulatory, strategic and policy frameworks in social protection and disaster risk management and reduction areas, in order to ensure the necessary coordination through functional linkages between the systems, both horizontally and vertically. Moreover, develop mechanisms to support further development at subnational levels, in either of the two areas where the capacity is lower.
- At subnational level, consolidate the cooperation mechanisms between the two areas, develop cross-cutting and multidisciplinary approaches in tackling shocks and crisis, and build on mutual learning, including by considering good practices implemented by different subnational governments.
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Case studies quick look
Albania
Country disaster risk profile
Albania is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, with increased vulnerability due to its infrastructure needs, and poverty in rural areas. The country is prone to numerous natural hazards, including hydrometeorological hazards: floods, droughts, forest fires, and landslides. The country is also at high-risk to geophysical hazards such as earthquakes. Changes to Albania’s climate, specifically the frequency of extreme weather events and temperature variations, are expected to have the most significant impact on the country’s key sectors, its economy and population. The evaluation of the 2019 earthquake suggested that around 23 per cent of the damages were in relation to public assets; with a concentration of exposed assets in larger cities. Average damage from earthquakes and flooding is estimated at US$147 million per year, with a catastrophic event, such as a 1-in-100-year earthquake causing over US$2 billion in damages.
Fiscal and social protection measures
In 2020, the government put in place two support packages for affected people /businesses of a combined amount of Lek 45 billion (2.8 percent of GDP) consisting of budget spending, sovereign guarantees, and tax deferrals. A third smaller support package was adopted on 13 August, providing an additional minimum wage to public transport workers who resumed work one month later than the rest.
On social assistance, several measures were taken: cash transfers (conditional and unconditional) - economic assistance (Ndihma Ekonomike) and some lumpsums for various categories, monetary assistance by local authorities; home delivery to the persons in need of food, medical products, and other services; and utility waivers (electricity, renting, taxes, etc.).
On social insurance, a series of measures were taken on both pensions indexing
and unemployment benefits whereas on the labour markets the focus was on
several regulations, reduced worktime and wages subsidies.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Country disaster risk profile
Bosnia and Herzegovina is at risk of natural disasters, which affect the agricultural sector and human health, through seasonal flooding and periods of drought. The most common natural disasters are associated with heavy rainstorms that may cause mudslides and flooding of large areas of agricultural land, houses, and industrial buildings, as well as lead to other changes in the environment. Bosnia and Herzegovina also experiences and is at high risk of forest fires due to projected climate change trends and increasing temperatures. The projected changes in climate will make Bosnia and Herzegovina increasingly vulnerable to natural hazards: droughts, heat waves, heavy precipitation, landslides, and floods. Bosnia and Herzegovina is located in south-eastern Europe, one of the most complex tectonic sectors in Europe. While no seismic risk assessment has been undertaken, earthquakes are also a hazard for the country. Bosnia and Herzegovina is also ranked third in the world regarding its vulnerability to intense rain and prolonged rainfall events.
Fiscal and social protection measures
Bosnia and Herzegovina deployed substantial resources (economy and household levels): at the entity level, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) provided Euro 27 million support to the health sector, Euro 90 million support to firms, and Euro 128 million support to decentralised governments and civil protection. In contrast, the Republika Srpska (RS) provided Euro 74 million support to the health sector, Euro 47 million support to firms, and Euro 18 million support to lower level of governments and other public entities.
On social assistance, individual local governments provided significant sums to assist the elderly and families with low or no income. Top-ups and one-off payments were introduced for various categories of beneficiaries (for 6 months), and also several utility waivers.
On social insurance, a series of measures were taken on both health insurance, unemployment benefits and social security contributions, whereas on the labour markets the focus was on activation measures and wages (minimum) subsidies.
Montenegro
Country disaster risk profile
Montenegro’s main hazard exposure is to floods and earthquakes. Flooding affects 10,000 people annually on average and causes an average of US$90 million in damage to the national gross domestic product (GDP). During the last 20 years, Montenegro has experienced six destructive floods; the three largest took place in 2000, 2010, and 2011. Earthquakes on average affect 9,000 people and cost US$70 million in GDP annually. In addition, Montenegro is susceptible to heavy rainfalls, flash floods (typically in urban areas), landslides, and wildfires. These events impact settlements, industrial facilities, and agricultural lands. River valleys are relatively small but contain the largest settlements. Over half (60 percent) of the population lives in urban settlements. Montenegro’s GDP comes mainly from services, with a small portion generated from industry and agriculture. The Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction elaborates upon all possible risks affecting the territory of Montenegro.
Fiscal and social protection measures
Several Covid-19 response packages were adopted by the Government of Montenegro. The overall measures include (i) wage subsidies; (ii) one-off support to the vulnerable population; (iii) tax deferrals; (iv) support for new employment; (v) one-off support for firms to implement e-fiscalization; (vi) domestic travel vouchers for health and education workers; and additional measures for the tourism, catering, and agriculture and fisheries sectors.
On social assistance, a one-off amount was provided in each of the four economic packages, for material security beneficiaries (korisnika materijalnog obezbijeđenja) and premiums to agricultural producers. One-off payments to lowest social pensions and utility waivers were also provided.
On social insurance, a series of measures were taken on pensions complements and unemployment benefits and social security contributions for agricultural professionals, whereas on the labour markets the focus was on wage subsidies.
Tajikistan
Country disaster risk profile
Tajikistan is a mountainous country with diverse topography and is especially vulnerable to climate hazards. It is prone to earthquakes, floods, drought, avalanches, landslides and mudslides. The most vulnerable areas are the glacier-dependent river basins supplying hydropower and water resources for irrigation, fragile mountain ecosystems and isolated forest with mountainous and riverine terrain which makes it prone to landslides and land degradation. In addition, 26 per cent of the population is living under the poverty line. The emergency management capacity has increased lately helping Tajikistan to better cope with new natural hazards. The country’s worst drought was in the year 2000, which affected about 3 million people. About 36 per cent of Tajikistan is at risk of landslides and mudslides; in 2006, about 13,000 people were affected by flooding and landslides. The poverty rate decreased from 34.3 per cent in 2013 to 26.5 per cent in 2020 but rising prices and food insecurity hamper a strong economic rebound. Given the water interdependence of countries in the Central Asia region, climate change is likely to aggravate conflicts over water resources.
Fiscal and social protection measures
On May 6, 2020, the IMF Executive Board approved a disbursement of US$ 189.5 million for budget support to help Tajikistan. At the same time, development partners, (World Bank and Asian Development Bank) also provided financial support to Tajikistan of around US$ 150 million. The Government provided VAT exemptions on essential imports, and lump-sum assistance equivalent to minimum wage to vulnerable households and other socially disadvantaged groups.
On social assistance: cash transfers to poor households, extension of the targeted social assistance (TSA) programme from 40 to all 68 districts, utility waivers, with provision of household utilities subsidies and aid to families with children, including one-time payment to households with children under 3 years old. Most of the measures targeted the households affected by migration.
On social insurance: paid sick leave and disability certificates for those affected by COVID-19, while on labour markets the focus was on activation measures, with a focus on returning migrants.
Ukraine
Country disaster risk profile
Ukraine is at risk of hydrometeorological hazards and natural disasters, which primarily affect the agricultural and human health sectors, through seasonal flooding and periods of drought. Threats from riverine, urban floods and wildfires are considered high. Impacts from climate change make Ukraine increasingly vulnerable to: droughts, high temperatures, heat waves, heavy precipitation, mudflows, and floods. The most common natural disasters are associated with heavy rainstorms that may cause mudslides and flooding of large areas of agricultural land, houses and industrial buildings. Climate change is expected to increase risks and severity of natural disasters in Ukraine, through more intense temperatures as well as rainfall patterns, prolonged heat waves, and water scarcity. In recent years, the number of natural disasters has increased in the region and in many cases, they have been considered as catastrophic, causing fatalities and leading to significant economic losses.
Fiscal and social protection measures
Several measures were introduced to support business: (i) penalties for certain tax legislation violations cancelled, (ii) moratorium on tax audits and inspections, (iii) deadline for filing annual income and asset declarations extended, and other penalties cancelled. Price regulation was introduced for the period of the quarantine for 10 socially important food products, 20 categories of protective equipment and medicines and antiseptics.
On social assistance, cash transfers with focus on vulnerable families with children and beneficiaries of Guaranteed Minimum Income were provided, and utility waivers, with provision of household utilities subsidies and aid to families with children.
On social insurance, all categories were supported: paid sick leave, health insurance, pensions, unemployment benefits, and social security contributions, while on labour markets the focus was on activation measures, labour market regulations, reduced time work and wage subsidies.
