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A Child Survival Report Card: Number 1, 2004 View All Reports >
Chart: Key risk factors in
selected countries
While most countries will meet MDG 4, eight are falling behind.

Almost two thirds of the 21 countries in the region of Middle East and North Africa were on schedule to meet MDG 4 as of 2002. The five North African countries (Algeria, Egypt, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Morocco and Tunisia) have demonstrated significant reductions in under-five mortality in the 1990s, averaging an annual reduction rate of 6.6 per cent.

Each has made substantial progress in providing services to the population to

Of the eight countries falling behind, three Bahrain, Jordan and Lebanon have an under-five mortality rate of less than 1 child in 30, compared with the regional average of 1 child in 17. By contrast, the reductions in Sudan and Yemen are less than 2.5 per cent.

1 in 10
In three countries of the region Djibouti, Iraq and Yemen 1 in every 10 children dies before the age of five. All three, especially Iraq, will need to increase their efforts markedly to meet MDG 4.

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
CountryU5MR 1990U5MR 2002MDG target(a) 2015Progress(b) 1990-2002Requirement 2002-2015
Iraq 50 125 17 -7.6 15.5
Lebanon 37 32 12 1.2 7.4
Bahrain 19 16 6 1.4 7.2
Djibouti 175 143 58 1.7 6.9
Sudan 120 94 40 2.0 6.6
Jordan 43 33 14 2.2 6.4
Yemen 142 107 47 2.4 6.3
Algeria 69 49 23 2.9 5.8
Saudi Arabia 44 28 15 3.8 5.0
Syrian Arab Republic 44 28 15 3.8 5.0
Qatar 25 16 8 3.7 5.0
United Arab Emirates 14 9 5 3.7 5.0
Occupied Palestinian Territory 40 25 13 3.9 4.9
Kuwait 16 10 5 3.9 4.9
Iran (Islamic Republic of) 72 42 24 4.5 4.3
Morocco 85 43 28 5.7 3.2
Tunisia 52 26 17 5.8 3.1
Cyprus 12 6 4 5.8 3.1
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 42 19 14 6.6 2.3
Oman 30 13 10 7.0 2.0
Egypt 104 41 35 7.8 1.3
 

Countries whose AARR has matched or exceeded the implied MDG target in 1990-2002 are shown as shaded.


(a)

Millennium Development Goal 4 set each country the task of reducing the under-five child mortality rate by two thirds between 1990 and 2015.


(b)

The speed of progress in reducing the U5MR is measured here by calculating the average annual reduction rate (AARR). Unlike the comparison of absolute changes, the AARR reflects the fact that the lower limits to U5MR are approached only with increasing difficulty. The AARR is calculated on an exponential basis, which assumes a continuous, exponential reduction between two points in time. It does not take into account the intermediate values of the series. To achieve a two-thirds reduction between 1990 and 2015 requires a progress rate of 4.4 per cent or higher.

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Improving Health Services for Children of Egypt

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Unicef Progress for Children
Foreword
Child Survival
Sub-Saharan Africa
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