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A Child Survival Report Card: Number 1, 2004 View All Reports >
Chart: Key risk factors in selected countries
With only eight exceptions, most countries will not meet MDG4.

The average annual rate of reduction slowed to 1.3 per cent in the 1990s, far below the 3.6 per cent recorded by industrialized countries. Indeed, the region only managed to reduce its child mortality rate by seven points between 1990 and 2002, from 48 to 41. This contrasts sharply with the 20-point reduction in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Child mortality rates are notably higher in the countries of Central Asia than in those of Central and Eastern Europe. The probability of a child dying before the age of five is three times more likely in Central Asian countries than those in Central and Eastern Europe.

Albania, Armenia, Croatia Lithuania, Romania, Serbia and Montenegro, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey are on target. All other countries in the region are behind schedule on the child mortality MDG. The Russian Federation, the largest country in the region, with relatively low levels of mortality has nonetheless barely made any advances on reducing child mortality over the past decade. In contrast, Turkey has made impressive advances, almost halving its under-five mortality rate.

CEE/CIS AND BALTIC STATES
CountryU5MR 1990U5MR 2002MDG target(a) 2015Progress(b) 1990-2002Requirement 2002-2015
Kazakhstan 67 76 22 -1.1 9.4
Uzbekistan 62 68 21 -0.8 9.1
Latvia 20 21 7 -0.4 8.8
Turkmenistan 97 98 32 -0.1 8.5
Azerbaijan 105 105 35 0.0 8.5
Russian Federation 21 21 7 0.0 8.5
Bulgaria 16 16 5 0.0 8.5
Georgia 29 29 10 0.0 8.4
Belarus 21 20 7 0.4 8.1
Ukraine 22 20 7 0.8 7.8
Tajikistan 78 72 26 0.7 7.8
Moldova, Rep. of 37 32 12 1.2 7.4
Bosnia and Herzegovina 22 18 7 1.7 6.9
Kyrgyzstan 83 61 28 2.6 6.1
Lithuania 13 9 4 3.1 5.7
Albania 45 30 15 3.4 5.3
Romania 32 21 11 3.5 5.2
Serbia and Montenegro 30 19 10 3.8 4.9
The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 41 26 14 3.8 4.9
Croatia 13 8 4 4.0 4.8
Armenia 60 35 20 4.5 4.3
Turkey 78 42 26 5.2 3.7
 

Countries whose AARR has matched or exceeded the implied MDG target in 1990-2002 are shown as shaded.


(a)

Millennium Development Goal 4 set each country the task of reducing the under-five child mortality rate by two thirds between 1990 and 2015.


(b)

The speed of progress in reducing the U5MR is measured here by calculating the average annual reduction rate (AARR). Unlike the comparison of absolute changes, the AARR reflects the fact that the lower limits to U5MR are approached only with increasing difficulty. The AARR is calculated on an exponential basis, which assumes a continuous, exponential reduction between two points in time. It does not take into account the intermediate values of the series. To achieve a two-thirds reduction between 1990 and 2015 requires a progress rate of 4.4 per cent or higher.

Unicef Progress for Children
Foreword
Child Survival
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
Middle East and North Africa
East Asia and Pacific
CEE/CIS and Baltic States
Latin America and the Caribbean
Industrialized Countries
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