Gauging AIDS' terrible tollHow many infants will die of AIDS in the year 2010? Anywhere between 83,000 and 357,000 in just 19 of the high-risk countries. The more conservative estimates come from the UN Population Division, which believes that, with 75,000 infants (under 1 year of age) dying of AIDS in 1995, the pandemic essentially levelled off. But the estimates by the United States Bureau of the Census are more pessimistic: AIDS took 105,000 infant lives in 1995 in the 19 countries, and the toll will surge to more than 3 times that number in 2010—more than 10 times the number of infant deaths from all causes in Europe (except Eastern Europe).The main reason for the difference between the two estimates is their assumptions as to the timing of the peak of the epidemic in these countries: The Census Bureau believes that the peak will come in 2010, while the UN believes it peaked in 1995. In the 19 countries, the Census Bureau attributes 26% of infant mortality to AIDS in 2010, whereas the UN estimate is 8%. As to the impact on individual countries, the Census Bureau projects that in Kenya, AIDS will claim 51,000 infants in 2010, 41% of all infant deaths in the country. The comparable UN estimate is 12% or 12,200 infants. In Zimbabwe, according to the Census Bureau’s calculations, 36,300 infants will die of AIDS in 2010, 58% of the total; the UN estimate is 11,500 deaths or 27% of all babies dying in the country. But Botswana is projected to be the biggest casualty of the scourge in 2010—61% or 4,500 of 7,500 total infant deaths (according to the Census Bureau) and 35% or 1,600 of 4,500 infant deaths (according to UN figures). The projections cover 19 of the 32 hardest hit countries where HIV/AIDS now rages. But the epidemic is only beginning to grow in Asia, for example, and new countries could appear on this chart if prevention and control efforts do not take hold. Worldwide, the percentage of infant deaths attributable to HIV/AIDS is still small. That is because at this time AIDS is not a significant cause of infant or child death in the countries with the biggest percentage of the world’s children, especially China and India. It is important to remember that the impact of HIV/AIDS on children
is not only measured in statistics on their health but also in the health
of their parents and communities. A young child whose parents are sick
or dead is at heightened risk of death from preventable diseases and malnutrition,
while older children (girls especially) must often leave school to care
for sick parents, mind younger siblings or go to work. In all of these
ways, the effect of HIV/AIDS on development is potentially enormous—and
as yet unmeasured.
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